The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a global climatic anomaly that extended from approximately the 9th through the 14th century AD. During this period, temperatures in many parts of the world regularly attained levels that were 0.5 to 1.0°C warmer than they are currently. In this Summary, we review some of the recent studies of the MWP that have been conducted in Russia.
Demezhko and Shchapov (2001) studied a borehole extending to more than 5 km depth, reconstructing an 80,000-year history of ground surface temperature in the Middle Urals within the western rim of the Tagil subsidence (58°24' N, 59°44'E). The reconstructed temperature history revealed the existence of a number of climatic excursions, including, in their words, the "Medieval Warm Period with a culmination about 1000 years ago."
Further north, Hiller et al. (2001) analyzed subfossil wood samples from the Khibiny mountains on the Kola Peninsula of Russia (67-68°N, 33-34°E) in an effort to reconstruct the region's climate history over the past 1500 years. They determined that between AD 1000 and 1300 the tree-line was located at least 100-140 m above its current elevation. This observation, in their words, suggests that mean summer temperatures during this "Medieval climatic optimum" were "at least 0.8°C higher than today," and that "the Medieval optimum was the most pronounced warm climate phase on the Kola Peninsula during the last 1500 years."
Additional evidence for the Medieval Warm Period in Russia comes from Naurzbaev and Vaganov (2000), who developed a 2200-year proxy temperature record (212 BC to 1996 AD) using tree-ring data obtained from 118 trees near the upper timberline in Siberia. Based on their results, they concluded that the warming experienced in the 20th century was "not extraordinary," and that "the warming at the border of the first and second millennia was longer in time and similar in amplitude."
In concluding this brief summary of Russian work, we highlight the study of Krenke and Chernavskaya (2002), who present an impressive overview of what is known about the MWP within Russia, as well as throughout the world, based on historical evidence, glaciological evidence, hydrologic evidence, dendrological data, archaeological data and palynological data. And what is known is that in many places it was warmer during the MWP than it was during the latter part of the 20th century. For example, they report that "the northern margin of boreal forests in Canada was shifted [north] by 55 km during the MWP, and the tree line in the Rocky Mountains in the southern United States and in the Krkonose Mountains was higher by 100-200 m than that observed at the present time."
In reference to the "hockeystick" temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. (1998, 1999), the two members of the Russian Academy of Sciences say "the temperature averaged over the 20th century was found to be the highest among all centennial means, although it remained within the errors of reconstructions for the early millennium." They pointedly remind us, however, that "one should keep in mind that the reconstructions of the early period were based nearly entirely on tree-ring data, which, because of the features of their interpretation, tend to underestimate low-frequency variations, so the temperatures of the Medieval Warm Period were possibly underestimated," after which they go on to provide yet additional evidence for that conclusion, reporting that "the limits of cultivated land or receding glaciers have not yet exceeded the level characteristic of the early millennium."
Concentrating on data wholly from within Russia, Krenke and Chernavskaya report large differences in a number of variables between the Little Ice Age (LIA) and MWP. With respect to the annual mean temperature of northern Eurasia, they report an MWP to LIA drop on the order of 1.5°C. They also say that "the frequency of severe winters reported was increased from once in 33 years in the early period of time, which corresponds to the MWP, to once in 20 years in the LIA," additionally noting that "the abnormally severe winters [of the LIA] were associated with the spread of Arctic air masses over the entire Russian Plain." Finally, they note that the data they used to draw these conclusions were "not used in the reconstructions performed by Mann et al.," which perhaps explains why the Mann et al. temperature history of the past millennium does not depict the coolness of the LIA or the warmth of the MWP nearly as well as the more appropriately derived temperature history of Esper et al. (2002).
In discussing their approach to the subject of global warming detection and attribution, the Russian Academicians state that "an analysis of climate variations over 1000 years should help … reveal natural multicentennial variations possible at present but not detectable in available 100-200-year series of instrumental records." In this endeavor, they were highly successful, as their efforts have exposed the bankruptcy of the climate-alarmist claim that 20th-century warming is outside the realm of natural variability and must therefore be due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Last of all, and in contradiction of another of Mann et al.'s contentions, Krenke and Chernavskaya unequivocally state, based on the results of their comprehensive study of the relevant scientific literature, that "the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age existed globally."
References
Demezhko, D.Yu. and Shchapov, V.A. 2001. 80,000 years ground surface temperature history inferred from the temperature-depth log measured in the superdeep hole SG-4 (the Urals, Russia). Global and Planetary Change 29: 167-178.
Esper, J., Cook, E.R. and Schweingruber, F.H. 2002. Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 295: 2250-2253.
Hiller, A., Boettger, T. and Kremenetski, C. 2001. Medieval climatic warming recorded by radiocarbon dated alpine tree-line shift on the Kola Peninsula, Russia. The Holocene 11: 491-497.
Krenke, A.N. and Chernavskaya, M.M. 2002. Climate changes in the preinstrumental period of the last millennium and their manifestations over the Russian Plain. Isvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics 38: S59-S79.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1998. Global-scale temperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392: 779-787.
Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S. and Hughes, M.K. 1999. Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters 26: 759-762.
Naurzbaev, M.M. and Vaganov, E.A. 2000. Variation of early summer and annual temperature in east Taymir and Putoran (Siberia) over the last two millennia inferred from tree rings. Journal of Geophysical Research 105: 7317-7326.