We begin our review of the Medieval Warm Period in the Arctic with the study of Dahl-Jensen et al. (1998), who used temperature measurements from two Greenland Ice Sheet boreholes to reconstruct the temperature history of this portion of the earth over the past 50,000 years. Their data indicate that after the termination of the glacial period, temperatures steadily rose to a maximum of 2.5°C warmer than at present during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (4,000 to 7,000 years ago). The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were also documented in the record, with temperatures 1°C warmer and 0.5-0.7°C cooler than at present, respectively. After the Little Ice Age, they report that temperatures once again rose, but that they "have decreased during the last decades." These results thus clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than it is there now.
Wagner and Melles (2001) also worked on Greenland, where they extracted a 3.5-m-long sediment core from a lake (Raffels So) on an island (Raffles O) located just off Liverpool Land on the east coast of Greenland, which they analyzed for a number of properties related to the past presence of seabirds there, obtaining a 10,000-year record that tells us much about the region's climatic history. Key to the study were biogeochemical data, which, in the words of the researchers, reflect "variations in seabird breeding colonies in the catchment which influence nutrient and cadmium supply to the lake."
Wagner and Melles' data reveal sharp increases in the values of the parameters they measured between about 1100 and 700 years before present (BP), indicative of the summer presence of significant numbers of seabirds during that "medieval warm period," as they describe it, which had been preceded by a several-hundred-year period (Dark Ages Cold Period) of little to no bird presence. Thereafter, their data suggest another absence of birds during what they call "a subsequent Little Ice Age," which they note was "the coldest period since the early Holocene in East Greenland."
The Raffels So data also show signs of a "resettlement of seabirds during the last 100 years, indicated by an increase of organic matter in the lake sediment and confirmed by bird observations." However, values of the most recent measurements are not as great as those obtained from the earlier Medieval Warm Period, which indicates that higher temperatures prevailed during the period from 1100 to 700 years BP than what has been observed over the most recent hundred years.
A third relevant Greenland study was conducted by Kaplan et al. (2002), who derived a climatic history of the Holocene by analyzing the physical-chemical properties of sediments obtained from a small lake in southern Greenland. They determined that the interval from 6000 to 3000 years BP was marked by warmth and stability, but that the climate cooled thereafter until its culmination in the Little Ice Age. From 1300-900 years BP, however, there was a partial amelioration during the Medieval Warm Period, which was associated with an approximate 1.5°C rise in temperature.
In a non-Greenland Arctic study, Jiang et al. (2002) analyzed diatom assemblages from a high-resolution core extracted from the seabed of the north Icelandic shelf to reconstruct a 4600-year history of mean summer sea surface temperature at that location. Starting from a maximum value of about 8.1°C at 4400 years BP, the climate was found to have cooled fitfully for about 1700 years and then more consistently over the final 2700 years of the record. The most dramatic departure from this long-term decline was centered on about 850 years BP, during the Medieval Warm Period, when the temperature rose by more than 1°C above the line describing the long-term downward trend to effect an almost complete recovery from the colder temperatures of the Dark Ages Cold Period, after which temperatures continued their descent into the Little Ice Age, ending with a final most recent value of approximately 6.3°C. Hence, these data also clearly indicate that the Medieval Warm Period in this part of the Arctic was significantly warmer than it is there now.
Moving on, Moore et al. (2001) analyzed sediment cores from Donard Lake, Baffin Island, Canada, producing a 1240-year record of average summer temperatures for this Arctic region. Over the entire period from AD 750-1990, temperatures averaged 2.9°C. However, anomalously warm decades with summer temperatures as high as 4°C occurred around AD 1000 and 1100, while at the beginning of the 13th century, Donard Lake witnessed "one of the largest climatic transitions in over a millennium," as "average summer temperatures rose rapidly by nearly 2°C from 1195-1220 AD, ending in the warmest decade in the record" with temperatures near 4.5°C.
This rapid warming of the 13th century was followed by a period of extended warmth that lasted until an abrupt cooling event occurred around 1375 and made the following decade one of the coldest in the record. This event signaled the onset of the Little Ice Age, which lasted for 400 years, until a gradual warming trend began about 1800, which was followed by a dramatic cooling event in 1900 that brought temperatures back to levels similar to those of the Little Ice Age. This cold regime lasted until about 1950, whereupon temperatures warmed for about two decades but then tended downwards again all the way to the end of the record in 1990. Hence, in this part of the Arctic the Medieval Warm Period was also warmer than it is there currently.
The following year, Grudd et al. (2002) assembled tree-ring widths from 880 living, dead, and subfossil northern Swedish pines into a continuous and precisely dated chronology covering the period 5407 BC to AD 1997. The strong association between these data and summer (June-August) mean temperatures of the last 129 years of the period then enabled them to produce a 7400-year history of summer mean temperature for northern Swedish Lapland.
The most dependable portion of this record, based upon the number of trees that were sampled, consisted of the last two millennia, which the authors say "display features of century-timescale climatic variation known from other proxy and historical sources, including a warm 'Roman' period in the first centuries AD and a generally cold 'Dark Ages' climate from about AD 500 to about AD 900." They also note that "the warm period around AD 1000 may correspond to a so-called 'Mediaeval Warm Period,' known from a variety of historical sources and other proxy records." Lastly, they say "the climatic deterioration in the twelfth century can be regarded as the starting point of a prolonged cold period that continued to the first decade of the twentieth century," which "Little Ice Age," in their words, is also "known from instrumental, historical and proxy records." Going back further in time, the tree-ring record displays several more of these relatively warmer and colder periods. And in a telling commentary on current climate-alarmist claims, they report that "the relatively warm conditions of the late twentieth century do not exceed those reconstructed for several earlier time intervals." In fact, the warmth of many of the earlier warm intervals significantly exceeded the warmth of the late 20th century.
Seppa and Birks (2002) used a recently developed pollen-climate reconstruction model and a new pollen stratigraphy from Toskaljavri -- a tree-line lake in the continental sector of northern Fenoscandia (located just above 69°N latitude) -- to derive quantitative estimates of annual precipitation and July mean temperature. As they describe it, their reconstructions "agree with the traditional concept of a 'Medieval Warm Period' (MWP) and 'Little Ice Age' in the North Atlantic region (Dansgaard et al., 1975) and in northern Fennoscandia (Korhola et al., 2000)." In addition, they report there is "a clear correlation between [their] MWP reconstruction and several records from Greenland ice cores," and that "comparisons of a smoothed July temperature record from Toskaljavri with measured borehole temperatures of the GRIP and Dye 3 ice cores (Dahl-Jensen et al., 1998) and the δ18O record from the Crete ice core (Dansgaard et al., 1975) show the strong similarity in timing of the MWP between the records." Last of all, they note that "July temperature values during the Medieval Warm Period (ca. 1400-1000 cal yr B.P.) were ca. 0.8°C higher than at present," where present means the last six decades of the 20th century.
Noting that temperature changes in high latitudes are (1) sensitive indicators of global temperature changes, and that they can (2) serve as a basis for verifying climate model calculations, Naurzbaev et al. (2002) developed a 2,427-year proxy temperature history for the part of the Taimyr Peninsula of northern Russia that lies between 70°30' and 72°28' North latitude, based on a study of ring-widths of living and preserved larch trees, noting further that "it has been established that the main driver of tree-ring variability at the polar timber-line [where they worked] is temperature (Vaganov et al., 1996; Briffa et al., 1998; Schweingruber and Briffa, 1996)." In doing so, they found that "the warmest periods over the last two millennia in this region were clearly in the third [Roman Warm Period], tenth to twelfth [Medieval Warm Period] and during the twentieth [Current Warm Period] centuries."
With respect to the second of these periods, they emphasize that "the warmth of the two centuries AD 1058-1157 and 950-1049 attests to the reality of relative mediaeval warmth in this region." Their data also reveal three other important pieces of information: (1) the Roman and Medieval Warm Periods were both warmer than the Current Warm Period has been to date, (2) the "beginning of the end" of the Little Ice Age was somewhere in the vicinity of 1830, and (3) the Current Warm Period peaked somewhere in the vicinity of 1940.
All of these observations are at odds with what is portrayed in the thousand-year Northern Hemispheric hockeystick temperature history of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) and its thousand-year global extension developed by Mann and Jones (2003), wherein (1) the Current Warm Period is depicted as the warmest such era of the past two millennia, (2) recovery from the Little Ice Age does not begin until after 1910, and (3) the Current Warm Period experiences it highest temperatures in the latter part of the 20th century's final decade.
Advancing two years closer to the present, Knudsen et al. (2004) documented climatic changes over the last 1200 years by means of high-resolution multi-proxy studies of benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes, and ice-rafted debris found in three sediment cores retrieved from the North Icelandic shelf. This work revealed that "the time period between 1200 and around 7-800 cal. (years) BP, including the Medieval Warm Period, was characterized by relatively high bottom and surface water temperatures," after which "a general temperature decrease in the area marks the transition to ... the Little Ice Age." They also note that "minimum sea-surface temperatures were reached at around 350 cal. BP, when very cold conditions were indicated by several proxies." Thereafter, they say that "a modern warming of surface waters ... is not [our italics] registered in the proxy data," and that "there is no clear indication of warming of water masses in the area during the last decades," even in sea surface temperatures measured over the period 1948-2002.
Fast-forwarding another two years, Grinsted et al. (2006) developed "a model of chemical fractionation in ice based on differing elution rates for pairs of ions ... as a proxy for summer melt (1130-1990)," based on data obtained from a 121-meter-long ice core they extracted from the highest ice field in Svalbard (Lomonosovfonna: 78°51'53"N, 17°25'30"E), which was "validated against twentieth-century instrumental records and longer historical climate proxies." This history indicated that "in the oldest part of the core (1130-1200), the washout indices [were] more than 4 times as high as those seen during the last century, indicating a high degree of runoff." In addition, they report they have performed regular snow pit studies near the ice core site since 1997 (Virkkunen, 2004) and that "the very warm 2001 summer resulted in similar loss of ions and washout ratios as the earliest part of the core." They then state that "this suggests that the Medieval Warm Period in Svalbard summer conditions [was] as warm (or warmer) as present-day, consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction of Moberg et al. (2005)." In addition, they conclude that "the degree of summer melt was significantly larger during the period 1130-1300 than in the 1990s," which likewise suggests that a large portion of the Medieval Warm Period was significantly warmer than the peak warmth (1990s) of the Current Warm Period.
Moving ahead a final two years, Besonen et al. (2008) derived thousand-year histories of varve thickness and sedimentation accumulation rate for Canada's Lower Murray Lake (81°20'N, 69°30'W), which is typically covered for about eleven months of each year by ice that reaches a thickness of 1.5 to 2 meters at the end of each winter. With respect to these parameters, they say -- citing seven other studies -- that "field-work on other High Arctic lakes clearly indicates that sediment transport and varve thickness are related to temperatures during the short summer season that prevails in this region, and we have no reason to think that this is not the case for Lower Murray Lake."
So what did they find? As the six scientists describe it, the story told by both the varve thickness and sediment accumulation rate histories of Lower Murray Lake is that "the twelfth and thirteenth centuries were relatively warm," and in this regard we note their data indicate that Lower Murray Lake and its environs were often much warmer during this time period (AD 1080-1320) than they were at any point in the 20th century, which has also been shown to be the case for Donard Lake (66.25°N, 62°W) by Moore et al. (2001).
In thus concluding this summary, it is clear that the suite of measurements described in the studies reviewed above continues to indicate that the Arctic -- which climate models suggest should be super-sensitive to greenhouse-gas-induced warming -- is still not as warm as it was many centuries ago during portions of the Medieval Warm Period, when there was much less CO2 and methane in the air than there is today, which further suggests that the planet's more modest current warmth need not be the result of historical increases in these two trace gases of the atmosphere.
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Last updated 12 November 2008