Singh et al. (2000, 2001) analyzed 122 years of tropical cyclone data from the North Indian Ocean over the period 1877-1998. Since this was the period of time during which the planet recovered from the global chill of the Little Ice Age, it is logical to assume that their findings would be indicative of changes in hurricane characteristics we might expect if the earth were to warm by that amount again, which is what climate alarmists are almost promising us it will do.

So, what did Singh et al. find? On an annual basis, there was a slight decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, such that the North Indian Ocean, on average, experienced about one less hurricane per year at the end of the 122-year record in 1998 than it did at its start in 1877. In addition, based on data from the Bay of Bengal, they found that tropical cyclone numbers dropped during the months of most severe cyclone formation (November and May), when the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was in a warm phase. In light of these real-world observations, it would thus appear that if tropical cyclones of the North Indian Ocean were to change at all in response to global warming, their overall frequency and the frequency of the most intense such storms would likely decrease, which is just the opposite of what climate alarmists typically claim will occur.

Hall (2004) analyzed characteristics of cyclones occurring south of the equator from longitude 90°E to 120°W in the South Pacific and southeast Indian Oceans, concentrating on the 2001-2002 cyclone season and comparing the results with those of the preceding four years and the 36 years before that. This work revealed that "the 2001-2002 tropical cyclone season in the South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean was one of the quietest on record, in terms of both the number of cyclones that formed, and the impact of those systems on human affairs." In the southeast Indian Ocean, for example, Hall determined that "the overall number of depressions and tropical cyclones was below the long-term mean." Further east, he found that broad-scale convection was near or slightly above normal, but that "the proportion of tropical depressions and weak cyclones developing into severe cyclones was well below average," which result represented "a continuation of the trend of the previous few seasons." What is more, Hall writes that "in the eastern Australian region, the four-year period up to 2001-2002 was by far the quietest recorded in the past 41 years." Consequently, Hall's work too, like that of Singh et al., suggests a likely decline in both the intensity and frequency of Indian-Ocean tropical cyclones if the world continues to warm.

Raghavan and Rajesh (2003) reviewed the general state of scientific knowledge relative to trends in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones throughout the world, giving special attention to the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, which borders on the Bay of Bengal. For the North Indian Ocean (NIO), comprising both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, they report that for the period 1891-1997 there was a significant decreasing trend (at the 99% confidence level) in the frequency of cyclones with the designation of "cyclonic storm" and above, and that "the maximum decrease was in the last four decades," citing the work of Srivastava et al. (2000). In addition, they note that Singh and Khan (1999), who studied 122 years of data, also found the annual frequency of NIO-basin tropical cyclones to be decreasing.

As in other parts of the world, however, they found increasing impacts of tropical cyclones; but their economic analysis led them to conclude that "increasing damage due to tropical cyclones over Andhra Pradesh, India, is attributable mainly to economic and demographic factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones." Hence, and with no equivocation, they state that "inflation, growth in population, and the increased wealth of people in the coastal areas (and not global warming) are the factors contributing to the increased impact."

Commenting on their findings, the researchers say "there is a common perception in the media, and even government and management circles, that [increased property damage from tropical cyclones] is due to an increase in tropical cyclone frequency and perhaps in intensity, probably as a result of global climate change." However, as they continue, "studies all over the world show that though there are decadal variations, there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones." Hence, they confidently state that "the specter of tropical cyclones increasing alarmingly due to global climate change, portrayed in the popular media and even in some more serious publications, does not therefore have a sound scientific basis," which pretty much obviates the need for us to say anything further about the topic.

References
Hall, J.D. 2004. The South Pacific and southeast Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season 2001-02. Australian Meteorological Magazine 53: 285-304.

Raghavan, S. and Rajesh, S. 2003. Trends in tropical cyclone impact: A study in Andhra Pradesh, India. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 635-644.

Singh, O.P. and Ali Khan, T.M. 1999. Changes in the frequencies of cyclonic storms and depressions over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. SMRC Report 2. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, Meteorological Research Centre, Agargaon, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Singh, O.P., Ali Khan, T.M. and Rahman, S. 2000. Changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 75: 11-20.

Singh, O.P., Ali Kahn, T.M. and Rahman, S. 2001. Has the frequency of intense tropical cyclones increased in the North Indian Ocean? Current Science 80: 575-580.

Srivastava, A.K., Sinha Ray, K.C. and De, U.S. 2000. Trends in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances and their intensification over Indian seas. Mausam 51: 113-118.