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Health Effects (Temperature - Hot vs. Cold: Asia) -- Summary
Climate alarmists predict global warming will increase human death rates, and nary a heat wave occurs but what they are quick to blame any concurrent excess deaths on the high temperatures associated with it.  Much more deadly than hot weather, however, is cold weather; yet climate alarmists typically ignore the excess deaths that are caused by low temperatures, even though they are far more numerous than those caused by high temperatures.  How do we know?  Because a multiplicity of scientific studies reveals such to be the case, as demonstrated by the results reported below for different parts of Asia.

Feigin et al. (2000) carried out what they describe as "the first truly population-based study on the relationship between stroke occurrence and weather parameters in Russia."  This work was conducted in Novosibirsk, Siberia (which has one of the highest incidence rates of stroke in the entire world), and was based on a total of 2208 patients with "a sex and age distribution similar to that of Russia as a whole."  For people who had a certain date of first stroke over the period 1982-93, Feigin et al. found a statistically significant association between stroke occurrence and low ambient temperature.  With respect to ischemic stroke, which accounted for 87% of all stroke types, they report that the risk of occurrence on days with low ambient temperature "is 32% higher than that on days with high ambient temperature."  In light of this finding, and "given the highly significant association observed between low ambient temperature (< -2.0°C) and ischemic stroke occurrence (P = 0.02), together with the proportion of days with such temperature in the region during a calendar year (41.3%)," they say "it seems plausible that very high stroke incidence in Novosibirsk, Russia may partially be explained by the highly prevalent cold factor there."  And to counteract that factor, they suggest the implementation of "preventive measures in our region, such as avoiding low temperature [our italics]," which is what global warming helps one to do.

Working in another part of Asia that gets its fair share of cold, Nakaji et al. (2004) evaluated seasonal trends in deaths due to various diseases in Japan, using nationwide vital statistics from 1970 to 1999 together with mean monthly temperature data.  They found that the numbers of deaths due to infectious and parasitic diseases including tuberculosis, respiratory diseases including pneumonia and influenza, diabetes, digestive diseases and cerebrovascular and heart diseases rise to a maximum during what they call Japan's "bitterly cold winters."  In fact, they found that peak mortality rates due to heart disease and stroke were 1.5 to 2 times greater in winter (January) than what they were at the time of their yearly minimums (August and September).  The team of nine scientists thus concluded that "to reduce the overall mortality rate and to prolong life expectancy in Japan, measures must be taken to reduce those mortality rates associated with seasonal differences."  They also say "it has long been recognized that cold temperature acts as a trigger for coronary events," and that "major infectious diseases are epidemic in winter."  Hence, it is clear that to achieve the team's objectives, it would be necessary, in their words, to bring about a "reduction in exposure to cold environments," which is precisely what global warming does, and what it does best when it warms more in winter than in summer, as Nakaji et al. have shown to be the case in Japan, where winter warming over the past 30 years was twice as great as what it was during the rest of the year.

In yet another region that experiences some bitterly cold winters, Hong et al. (2003) investigated the association between the onset of ischemic stroke and prior episodic decreases in temperature in 545 patients who suffered strokes in Incheon, Korea, over the period January 1998 to December 2000.  In doing so, they discovered that "decreased ambient temperature was associated with risk of acute ischemic stroke," with the strongest effect being seen on the day after exposure to cold weather.  They also observed that "even a moderate decrease in temperature can increase the risk of ischemic stroke," but that "risk estimates associated with decreased temperature were greater in winter than in the summer," which suggests, in their words, that "low temperatures as well as temperature changes are associated with the onset of ischemic stroke."

A little to the south in Shanghai, China, Kan et al. (2003) investigated the association between temperature and daily mortality from 1 June 2000 to 31 Dec 2001, finding a V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature that had a minimum mortality risk at 26.7°C.  Above this optimum temperature, they observed that "total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperatures below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase."  The net effect of a warming in Shanghai, China, therefore, would likely be reduced mortality on the order of 0.5% per degree Celsius increase in temperature, or perhaps even more, in light of the fact that the warming of the past few decades has been primarily due to increases in daily minimum temperatures, with much smaller increases at the high end of the temperature spectrum.  Hence, it can be appreciated that the recovery of the earth from the global chill of the Little Ice Age has had a positive effect on the health of the people of Shanghai that continues to this day, and it should continue into the foreseeable future if the planet continues to warm.

All the way across the continent, Behar (2000) studied sudden cardiac death (SCD) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Israel, concentrating on the role that temperature may play in the incidence of these deadly health problems.  The review aspect of this effort revealed that "most of the recent papers on this topic have concluded that a peak of SCD, AMI and other cardiovascular conditions is usually observed in low temperature weather during winter."  As one example, he cites an Israeli study by Green et al. (1994), which revealed that between 1976 and 1985 "mortality from cardiovascular disease was higher by 50% in mid-winter than in mid-summer, both in men and women and in different age groups," and in spite of the fact that summer temperatures in the Negev, where much of the work was conducted, often exceed 30°C, while winter temperatures typically do not drop below 10°C.  Behar thus concludes that these results "are reassuring for populations living in hot countries."  We additionally suggest they should be reassuring for everyone on the planet who may be fortunate enough to be "experiencing" global warming.

In conclusion, the results of these several Asian studies suggest that low temperatures tend to foster a number of life-threatening maladies that could be considerably reduced by a good dose of global warming everywhere, but especially in (1) cold climates, during (2) the cold season of the year, and at (3) the coldest time of the day, which is precisely when and where most real-world warming typically occurs.  Clearly, therefore, global warming must be acknowledged to be good for our health, and for our prospects of living long and productive lives, which is exactly the opposite of what climate alarmists continually preach.

References
Behar, S.  2000.  Out-of-hospital death in Israel - Should we blame the weather?  Israel Medical Association Journal 2: 56-57.

Feigin, V.L., Nikitin, Yu.P., Bots, M.L., Vinogradova, T.E. and Grobbee, D.E.  2000.  A population-based study of the associations of stroke occurrence with weather parameters in Siberia, Russia (1982-92).  European Journal of Neurology 7: 171-178.

Green, M.S., Harari, G., Kristal-Boneh, E.  1994.  Excess winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease and stroke during colder and warmer years in Israel.  European Journal of Public Health 4: 3-11.

Hong, Y-C., Rha, J-H., Lee, J-T., Ha, E-H., Kwon, H-J. and Kim, H.  2003.  Ischemic stroke associated with decrease in temperature.  Epidemiology 14: 473-478.

Kan, H-D., Jia, J. and Chen, B-H.  2003.  Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: A time-series study.  Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 16: 133-139.

Nakaji, S., Parodi, S., Fontana, V., Umeda, T., Suzuki, K., Sakamoto, J., Fukuda, S., Wada, S. And Sugawara, K.  2004.  Seasonal changes in mortality rates from main causes of death in Japan (1970-1999).  European Journal of Epidemiology 19: 905-913.

Last updated 21 September 2005