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South African Rainfall in the 20th Century
Reference
Fauchereau, N., Trzaska, S., Roualt, M. and Richard, Y.  2003.  Rainfall variability and changes in southern Africa during the 20th century in the global warming context.  Natural Hazards 29: 139-154.

What was done
Because GCM experiments, in the words of the authors, "suggest that global warming may result in a more intense hydrological cycle, with an associated increase in the frequency and/or magnitude of heavy precipitation," they investigated this subject with respect to rainfall variability in South Africa over the 20th century, which period climate alarmists typically characterize as having experienced "unprecedented" global warming, which characterization, if true, would be expected to provide for an excellent test of the GCM predictions.

What was learned
With respect to what they call the Southern Africa Rainfall Index (SARI), Fauchereau et al. note that "no significant trend is evident from SARI along the century, in agreement with many previous studies of long term rainfall variations over the region." However, they note that "large parts of South Africa have experienced a significant shift toward increasing probabilities of extreme rainfall ? in good agreement with those simulated in 2xCO2 GCM experiments."  Lest anyone get too excited about this observation, however, we note that the increase in rainfall variability over the latter decades of the 20th century is merely a return to similar conditions that existed in the early decades of the century, when it was significantly cooler than it is currently.

What it means
Over the course of what climate alarmists call a century of unprecedented global warming, and contrary to the implications of nearly all 2xCO2 GCM experiments, there has been no net change in either South African rainfall variability or the mean value of the Southern African Rainfall Index.


Reviewed 25 June 2003