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Looking for Evidence of Global Warming in Asia-Pacific River Runoff Data
Reference
Cluis, D. and Laberge, C. 2001. Climate change and trend detection in selected rivers within the Asia-Pacific region. Water International 26: 411-424.

What was done
The authors utilized streamflow records stored in the databank of the Global Runoff Data Center at the Federal Institute of Hydrology in Koblenz (Germany) to see if there were any changes in river runoff of the type predicted by IPCC scenarios of global warming, i.e., an enhancement of earth's hydrologic cycle that would increase mean global streamflow, as well as an increase in variability that would lead to more floods and droughts. The study encompassed 78 rivers said to be "geographically distributed throughout the whole Asia-Pacific region." The mean start and end dates of the flow records of the 78 rivers were 1936 5 years and 1988 1 year, respectively, representing an approximate half-century time span.

What was learned
Mean river discharges were unchanged in 67% of the cases investigated; and where there were trends, 69% of them were downward. Maximum river discharges were unchanged in 77% of the cases investigated; and where there were trends, 72% of them were downward. Minimum river discharges were unchanged in 53% of the cases investigated; and where there were trends, 62% of them were upward.

What it means
In the case of mean river discharge, the empirical observations go doubly against climate alarmist predictions, i.e., most rivers show no change, while most of those that do change exhibit decreases. In the case of maximum river discharge, the empirical observations go doubly against climate alarmist predictions, i.e., most rivers show no change, while most of those that do change exhibit decreases, indicative of less flooding. In the case of minimum river discharge, the empirical observations go doubly against climate alarmist predictions, i.e., most rivers show no change, while most of those that do change exhibit increases, indicative of less drought.

Let's see. Is that three outs, or is it six outs? No matter. Any way you look at it, the climate alarmists have totally blown the ballgame ... again.


Reviewed 9 January 2002