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The Fluctuating Water Supply of the Colorado River Basin
Reference
Hidalgo, H.G., Piechota, T.C. and Dracup, J.A.  2000.  Alternative principal components regression procedures for dendrohydrologic reconstructions.  Water Resources Research 36: 3241-3249.

What was done
The authors used a new form of principal components analysis to reconstruct a history of streamflow in the Upper Colorado River Basin based on information obtained from tree-ring data, after which they compared their results to the reconstruction results of Stockton and Jacoby (1976).

What was learned
The authors' results were similar to those of Stockton and Jacoby, except that their model responded with more intensity to periods of below average streamflow or regional drought.  Hence, it was easier to determine, in the words of the authors, that there has been "a near-centennial return period of extreme drought events in this region," going all the way back to the early 1500s.

What it means
These results provide yet another indication of the cyclical nature of climate.  They also provide evidence for the existence of past droughts, which - if they were to begin today and last as long as they have in the past - would surely be ascribed to the result of CO2-induced global warming, when, in reality, they are totally unrelated to what the air's CO2 content is doing.

Reference
Stockton, C.W. and Jacoby Jr., G.C.  1976.  Long-term surface-water supply and streamflow trends in the Upper Colorado River Basin based on tree-ring analysis.  Lake Powell Research Project Bulletin 18, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles.