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Hourly Rainfall Trends in Uttar Pradesh, India, Since 1969

Paper Reviewed
Kant, S. 2018. Trend and variability of hourly intensity of rainfall over eastern and northern part of Uttar Pradesh during 1969-2014. Mausam 69: 577-588.

One of the predictions associated with CO2-induced global warming is that a warmer atmosphere will evaporate more water and enhance the hydrologic cycle, resulting in increasing frequency and intensity of precipitation.

In a test of this hypothesis, Kant (2018) examined the precipitation records of four major weather stations in Uttar Pradesh, India, namely Bareilly, Allahabad, Lucknow and Babatpur, over the period 1969 to 2014. In doing so, he examined different quantile groups that were classified as having hourly rainfall intensities defined as very light spell, light spell, moderate spell, intense spell, very intense spell, extremely intense spell and exceptionally intense spell. Frequencies of these quantiles over time were then examined on a yearly, monthly, or monsoon period (June-September) basis.

In contrast to model predictions, Kant reports that "rainfall of different intensities in yearly, monthly, June-September (monsoon) [periods] for all the four stations is not statistically significant." Thus, it would appear that neither the CO2 rise nor the temperature increase of the past four-and-a-half decades was sufficient to drive changes in hourly rainfall intensity in northern India.

Posted 10 July 2019