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Scientist-Gods and Journalist-Prophets: In Modern-Day Climatology, the Boundaries Blur
Volume 2, Number 24: 15 December 1999

In the course of perusing scientific papers for potential inclusion in our journal review section, we recently came across a lengthy article by Wuebbles et al. (1999) entitled "Global change: state of the science."  Curious about the bottom line of their assessment, we immediately turned to their conclusion, where we read the following: "This paper has shown that climate theory, modeling studies, and long-term measurements combine to provide indisputable evidence for future climate change."

Thank goodness we did not start at the beginning of the scientists' paper; for if it truly contains indisputable evidence for future climate change, why bother to read the fine print?  Why not just take their word for it?  Then again, how can anyone, even a prophet, have such absolute knowledge about the future?  Would he not have to be even greater than a prophet?  A god perhaps?

Although many may aspire to so lofty a position, few are equipped to make the transition in a single lifetime.  And be assured, all scientists are mortal.  But what about journalists?

In a "Special to ABCNEWS.com" article that we downloaded on 11/9/99, Jennifer Viegas reports (and makes!) a lot of equally emphatic pronouncements about climate-model-predicted CO2-induced global warming: "All that extra heat will lead to extreme weather conditions ... The disruptive El Niņo/La Niņa cycles will get longer and more intense ... Lots of harmful insects will appreciate the changes ... Voracious Formosan termites will sink their fast-munching teeth into American homes ... Yellow jackets also will flourish ... encephalitis, malaria, yellow fever and other infectious diseases will soon spread to countries in the North, such as the United States."

Since Viegas says all these things will happen, and it's reported by a major news service, we've just got to believe her, don't we?  The things she says sure sound like facts.  And on paper they sure look like facts.  And a lot of people are sure acting like they truly are facts.  What is more, a lot of this lot of people have the ears of, or actually are, representatives of the leaders of the nations of the earth, who are forging a political framework to actually do something about the situation, i.e., save us from ourselves.  And who but a god could bring about such unity of purpose in so disparate a crowd?  Not a mere journalist!

Then there is the lesser deity, who is a little more subtle in his approach.  This species of god is not quite so omniscient (for which reduction in rank we will call him a prophet).  He does not claim to know all things; but he's surely acquainted with a lot of bad possibilities (make that a prophet of doom).

Consider, for example, the recently-released report entitled "Confronting Climate Change in California," which was prepared for The Union of Concerned Scientists and The Ecological Society of America by a group of scientists led by Chris Field.  This report comes replete with all the appropriate caveats befitting a prophet-of-doom scientist: "It is highly probable [our italics here and in all that follows] that California winters will become warmer and wetter ... Increases in the amount of winter rains could intensify flood and landslide hazards ... climate change may alter the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events ... Pests such as pine bark beetles could become more prominent ... El Niņo warming may encourage toxic algal blooms ... heavier and/or more frequent El Niņo rains could increase the frequency of the rodent population blooms that precede hantavirus outbreaks," and so on.

Well, it is indeed true that almost anything could happen.  And how can one argue against the possibility of whatever potential eventuality is being proposed, especially when prophet-of-doom scientists can be quoted as the source of the pronouncement?  Furthermore, if one hears the proposed scenario repeated over and over, again and again, as we indeed do in the popular media, the prophecies begin to sound so familiar that before you know it, even you are saying, not could, but will, with respect to the future occurrence of what is being predicted.

This, then, is the danger that confronts us: the words of the prophets of doom are everywhere.  In fact, they have become so commonplace, they are typically accepted as common knowledge.  And how can the public be blamed for their acceptance of these things?  All anyone knows about anything outside his or her personal sphere of involvement is what someone else tells them.  And why should people not give heed to scientists, especially those who warn of impending disaster and plead for their allegiance and sacrifice to save the planet?

Actually, there are numerous reasons.  Check back with us on 1 January 2000, when we begin our new year of operations, and we'll begin supplying you with answers to this important question.

Dr. Craig D. Idso
President
Dr. Keith E. Idso
Vice President

References
Field, C.B., Daily, G.C., Davis, F.W., Gaines, S., Matson, P.A., Melack, J. and Miller, N.L.  1999.  Confronting Climate Change in California: Ecological Impacts on the Golden State, Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA and Ecological Society of America, Washington, DC.

Wuebbles, D.J., Jain, A., Edmonds, J., Harvey, D. and Hayhoe, K.  1999.  Global change: state of the science.  Environmental Pollution 100: 57-86.