Paper Reviewed
Zhao, L., Xu, J., Powell, A.M., Jiang, Z. and Wang, D. 2016. Use of SSU/MSU Satellite Observations to Validate Upper Atmospheric Temperature Trends in CMIP5 Simulations. Remote Sensing 8: 10.3390/rs8010013.

In a test of climate-model-based projections, Zhao et al. (2016) conducted an inter-comparison of temperature trends extending from the middle troposphere to the upper stratosphere as derived from real-world satellite observations made by Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSUs), Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU) as well as CMIP5 climate model simulations. And what did this comparison reveal?

The five researchers report that "CMIP5 simulations [1] underestimated the stratospheric cooling in the tropics and [2] overestimated the cooling over the Antarctic compared to the satellite observations." They also note that (3) "the CMIP5 simulations displayed a different latitudinal pattern compared to the SSU/MSU measurements in all six layers from the middle troposphere to the upper stratosphere." And they further state that (4) "the CMIP5 simulations underestimated the stratospheric cooling in the tropics compared to the SSU observations" and that they (5) "remarkably overestimated the cooling in the Antarctic from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere."

All things considered, therefore, significant tweaking of CMIP5 models still has a long way to go before they are ready for prime-time real-world usage.