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Future South Asia Rainfall as Projected by CMIP5 Climate Models

Paper Reviewed
Prasanna, V. 2013. Regional climate change scenarios over South Asia in the CMIP5 coupled climate model simulations. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 127: 561-578.

In this particular study, Prasanna (2013) evaluates the performance of a suite of state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in terms of their abilities to represent regional characteristics of the hydrological cycle as they might possibly be expressed over South Asia up to the end of the 21st century. And what did the lone researcher thereby learn?

Prasanna reports that "considerable biases exist with reference to [1] the observed hydrological cycle and also [2] inter-model differences," while further noting that (3) the models' "quantitative estimates still have large uncertainties associated with them." More specifically, the South Korean scientist notes that "there is considerable inter-model dispersion in the case of [4] monsoon rainfall projections and [5] atmospheric water balance."

And in light of these several observations, Prasanna concludes that "there is no clear evidence of substantial change in the variability of monsoon rainfall and atmospheric water balance over the next century."

Posted 11 January 2016