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Climate Change in Northern Europe as per CMIP2, 3 and 5 Models

Paper Reviewed
Raisanen, J. and Ylhaisi, J.S. 2015. CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: CMIP2 versus CMIP3 versus CMIP5. Climate Dynamics 45: 1877-1897.

Introducing their work, Raisanen and Ylhaisi (2015) describe how they simulated near-present-day climate and climate change in northern Europe with CMIP2, CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, focusing on "an idealized scenario with a doubling of CO2 in 70 years." And what did they thereby learn?

The two researchers from Finland's University of Helsinki report that (1) "control simulations in the three ensembles share similar biases," which generally include (2) "colder-than-observed temperatures" and (3) "an underestimated north-south pressure gradient across northern Europe."

In light of these unfortunate findings, they thus write that "the manpower and other resources dedicated to model development in the past 10-15 years seem to have had little effect on the end product that ultimately matters the most for users of climate model data."

Yes, this study of the climate modeling enterprise reveals yet another sorry example of the obvious fact that the effort has been (4) getting nowhere fast over (5) a far too long passage of time, as well as via (6) a far too expensive research program that is (7) based on an unsupported hypothesis.

Posted 15 February 2016