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The Current Status of Modelling Arctic Summer Storm Tracks

Paper Reviewed
Nishii, K., Nakamura, H. and Orsolini, Y.V. 2015. Arctic summer storm track in IP3/5 climate models. Climate Dynamics 44: 1311-1327.

Noting that no systematic multi-model comparison had previously been conducted with the goal of assessing model performance and future projections of the climatological activity of the Arctic summer storm track, Nishii et al. (2015) state that such an undertaking is crucial for obtaining "a deeper understanding of the Arctic climate and its better future projection." And, therefore, they proceed to describe the findings of just such a study that they conducted.

In this study, as the three researchers report, Arctic summer storm tracks were derived from the outputs of 17 CMIP3 models and 17 CMIP5 models, after which their results were compared to six locally-measured reanalysis data sets that described the variance of sub-weekly fluctuations of sea level pressure. And what did these efforts reveal?

Quoting Nishii et al., they say they learned that (1,2) "most of the CMIP3/5 models have negative biases (i.e., underestimation) in [i] summertime storm-track activity and [ii] westerly wind speed around the Arctic Ocean compared to reanalysis data," that (3) there is a "fairly large inter-model spread in the projected storm-tract activity over the Arctic Ocean Cyclone Maximum (AOCM)," that (4) "the CMIP3/5 models generally underestimate the summertime cyclone intensity," citing Zappa et al. (2013), that (5) there are "fewer cyclones in most of the climate models than in the reanalysis data," and that (6) "the underestimation of the number of intense cyclones in most of the CMIP5 models is also found over the North Atlantic," once again citing Zappa et al. (2013).

Consequently, and in light of Nishii et al.'s admission that "further clarification of those processes that influence storm-track activity over the Arctic is necessary for more reliable future projections of the Arctic climate," it is absolutely incredulous that the current output of most CMIP5 models is accepted by the world's climate alarmists as nigh unto holy writ, which they typically cite as justification for their never-ending efforts to force mankind to dramatically reduce their CO2 emissions to Earth's atmosphere.

Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L.C. and Hodges, K.I. (2013) The ability of CMIP5 models to simulate North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Journal of Climate 26: 5379 -5396.

Posted 28 September 2015