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Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Behavior: What Do They Teach Us?

Paper Reviewed
Scafetta, N. and Mazzarella, A. 2015. The Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area index records versus measured and modeled temperature data. Advances in Meteorology 2015: 10.1155/2015/481834.

In an enlightening new study, Scafetta and Mazzarella (2015) studied both Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, which records revealed "an opposite climatic behavior." Since 1978, for example, the Arctic sea-ice area decreased as the region warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area increased as the region cooled. In addition, they report that during the last seven years of the study, the Arctic sea-ice area stabilized, while the Antarctic sea-ice area increased at a rate significantly higher than that of the previous decades. And they report that they also found that "a significant 4-5-year natural oscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas."

Further noting that "CMIP5 global climate models have predicted significant warming of both the Arctic and the Antarctic sea-ice areas," Scafetta and Mazzarella go on to say that while this prediction "could correlate with the observed reduction of the Arctic sea-ice area, the model prediction is clearly incompatible with the Antarctic data," which indicate that "the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased consistently during the last decades and in particular during the last seven years, indicating general cooling of the sea region surrounding the continent."

On another point, the two researchers note that "the CMIP5 GCMs also fail in reproducing the 4-5-year oscillation found in both the Arctic and the Antarctic sea-ice area records, which has been also found in the ENSO index," citing the study of Mazzarella et al. (2010). And, therefore, they further conclude that their results imply that earth's climate "is regulated by natural mechanisms and natural oscillations that are not included yet in the climate models," citing Scafetta (2013 and 2015).

References
Mazzarella, A., Giuliacci, A. and Liritzis, I. 2010. On the 60-month cycle of multivariate ENSO index. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 100: 23-27.

Scafetta, N. 2013. Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles. Earth-Science Reviews 126: 321-357.

Scafetta, N. 2014. Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO and NAO indexes. Climate Dynamics 43: 175-192.

Posted 20 November 2015