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A Reduction in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the South China Sea

Paper Reviewed
Ha, Y. and Zhong, Z. 2015. Decadal change in tropical cyclone activity over the South China Sea around 2002/03. Journal of Climate 28: 5925-5951.

Introducing their study, Ha and Zhong (2015) write that "almost all the tropical cyclones (TCs) formed over the SCS [South China Sea] can make landfall either along the southern China coast or in Vietnam and the Philippines shortly after their formation," which behavior generally leads to "severe damages resulting from TC-caused strong winds, storm surges, floods and landslides." And because of these important facts, the two Chinese researchers took it upon themselves to investigate the history of TC activity over the SCS since the early 1900s, while simultaneously exploring possible causes for what they observed. And what they observed was this:

First of all, and compared to the TC activities from the early 1990s to 2002, Ha and Zhong reported that (1) the number of TCs formed in the SCS markedly decreased from 2003 through the early 2010s, which was also found to have been the case by Li and Zhou (2014) and Ha et al. (2014). In addition, they found that (2) during 1994-2002, the TC intensity was much stronger than during 2003-2011, and that (3) TCs made more frequent landfall along the coastal areas during 1994-2002 than during 2003-2011.

And so we see that as time has progressed and the world's climate alarmists have become ever more alarmed about the world's weather -- and by their own predictions of wild and intensifying weather phenomena -- in the case of South China Sea tropical cyclones just the opposite appears to have been, and continues to be, the case.

Reference
Ha, Y., Zhong, Z., Sun, Y., and Lu, W. 2014. Decadal change of South China Sea tropical cyclone activity in mid-1990s and its possible linkage with intra-seasonal variability. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 119: 5331-5344.

Li, R.C.Y. and Zhou, W. 2014. Inter-decadal change in South China Sea tropical cyclone frequency in association with zonal sea surface temperature gradient. Journal of Climate 27: 5468-5480.

Posted 7 December 2015