Background
The authors write that "winter wheat is currently the most extensively grown arable crop in the UK," the climate of which "allows winter wheat to be grown throughout the winter, achieving larger yields than varieties that are planted in spring." However, they state that "recent climate projections show changes in temperature and precipitation are likely, potentially affecting UK crop yields." And, therefore, they felt it important to attempt to ascertain what the consequences might be for winter wheat yields throughout the UK's 13 main administrative regions, based on the climate-modeling work of Jenkins et al. (2009), which projected mean daily maximum temperatures in the UK "to increase by between 1.0 and 9.5°C in the summer and by between 0.7 and 2.7°C in the winter by the 2080s."

What was done
Cho et al. assessed the wheat yield implications of these projected climate changes by means of the CERES-Wheat model for "an ensemble of regional model projections and different sowing dates and fertilizer regimes."

What was learned
The five UK researchers report that their "sensitivity analyses of climate variables on future winter wheat yield in the UK generally indicated positive impacts from climate change," and they state that the CERES-Wheat model simulated "only positive feedbacks from the physiological effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations on crop growth and water use," in harmony with the earlier findings of Rosenzweig et al. (1994).

What it means
Cho et al. declare that although their work suggested a loss of yield in some southern regions, that result "may not be critical for wheat production in the UK as a whole, as losses in some regions are more than compensated by gains in others [italics added]." Thus, it would appear that even the worst-case climate-change scenario of the world's climate modelers would not overpower the positive effects of concomitant atmospheric CO2 enrichment on country-wide winter wheat yields in the UK.

References
Jenkins, G.J., Murphy, J.M., Sexton, D.S., Lowe, J.A., Jones, P. and Kilsby, C.G. 2009. UK Climate Projections: Briefing Report. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

Rosenzweig, C., Parry, M.L., Fischer, G. and Frohberg, K. 1994. Climate Change and World Food Supply. Research Report No. 3. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.