Well if Hansen's conclusions are that certain, he certainly didn't reach them via the scientific method; for there is likely no scientist on earth that would give any credence to such an extreme claim, especially as it pertains to such a complex subject. And perhaps that is why U.S. Congressman Ed Markey (a Democrat from Massachusetts) was reported by Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein (23 June 2008) to have said of Hansen that "we recognize him as a climate prophet."

So what does someone who has actually studied alpine regions have to say about the subject?

In a refreshing report on the status of alpine communities in the Swedish Scandes, Leif Kullman (2010) writes that "alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise, and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever," which is about as far from being "pushed off the planet" as one could imagine.

Continuing, the Professor of Physical Geography at Sweden's Umea University says that this particular course of biotic landscape evolution "has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling." And he opines that "continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities," which conclusions he comes to, in his words, via "an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation."

In enlarging on some of these positive warming-induced impacts, Kullman writes that "plant species diversity will further increase, both in remaining treeless alpine areas and emerging forest outliers on the former alpine tundra," and that this "new alpine landscape may come to support a previously unseen mosaic of richly flowering and luxuriant plant communities of early Holocene character," citing the works of Smith (1920), Iversen (1973) and Birks (2008). And in describing what has already been documented, he states that "in contrast to model predictions, no single alpine plant species has become extinct, neither in Scandinavia nor in any other part of the world, in response to climate warming over the past century," citing the studies of Pauli et al. (2001, 2007), Theurillat and Guisan (2001) and Birks (2008).

So how do they happen? ... all of these beneficial and warming-induced things?

Kullman writes that "many alpine species are extremely tolerant of high temperatures per se," citing Dahl (1998) and Birks (2008), as indicated "by their prospering and spread along roadsides far below the treeline, where emerging trees and shrubs are regularly mechanically exterminated (Kullman, 2006; Westerstrom, 2008)." And he notes that "another argument against the much-discussed option of pending mass-extinction of alpine species in a warmer future is that some alpine and arctic plant species contain a variety of ecotypes, pre-adapted to quite variable microclimatic and edaphic conditions, which could buffer against extinction in a possibly warmer future (Crawford, 2008)." In addition, he writes that this view is supported "by the fact that in the early Holocene, alpine plants survived, reproduced and spread in accordance with higher and more rapidly rising temperatures than those projected for the future by climate models (Oldfield, 2005; Birks, 2008)."

With respect to the value of the great and good ecological transformation that Kullman and others are documenting, he indicates that "extended ranges of many flowering species and increasing plant species richness and habitat diversity imply a highly variable and aesthetically appealing mountain landscape, which should be positive from a nature conservation point of view (Jurasinski and Kreyling, 2007)." In fact, he says that "such a course of landscape evolution adds to physical and ecological stability, functional efficiency, resilience and assures against 'system failure'," citing McCann (2000), Korner (2002) and McLaren (2006).

"Over all," as Kullman thus concludes, "continued warming throughout the present century would be potentially and predominantly advantageous for alpine flora and vegetation." And we agree, even though "the climate prophet of NASA" has declared otherwise ... and has done it in no uncertain terms.

Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso

References
Birks, H.H. 2008. The late-quaternary history of arctic and alpine plants. Plant Ecology and Diversity 1: 135-146.

Crawford, R.M.M. 2008. Cold climate plants in a warmer world. Plant Ecology and Diversity 1: 285-297.

Dahl, E. 1998. The Phytogeography of Northern Europe. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 295 pp.

Iversen, J. 1973. The development of Denmark's nature since the last glacial. Danmarks Geologiske Undersogelse Series V. Raeeke 7-C: 1-126.

Jurasinski, G. and Kreyling, J. 2007. Upward shift of alpine plants increases floristic similarity of mountain summits. Journal of Vegetation Science 18: 711-718.

Korner, C. 2002. Mountain biodiversity, its causes and function: An overview. In: Korner, C. and Spehn, E.M, Eds. Mountain Biodiversity, a Global Assessment. The Parthenon Publishing Group, Boca Raton, Florida, USA, pp. 3-20.

Kullman, L. 2006. Transformation of alpine and subalpine vegetation in a potentially warmer future, the Anthropocene era. Tentative projections based on a long-term observations and paleovegetation records. Current Trends in Ecology 1: 1-16.

Kullman, L. 2010. A richer, greener and smaller alpine world: Review and projection of warming-induced plant cover change in the Swedish Scandes. Ambio 39: 159-169.

McCann, K.S. 2000. The diversity-stability debate. Nature 405: 228-233.

McLaren, J.R. 2006. Effects of plant functional groups on vegetation dynamics and ecosystems properties. Arctic 59: 449-452.

Oldfield, F. 2005. Environmental Change. Key Issues and Alternative Perspectives. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 139-149.

Pauli, H., Gottfried, M. and Grabherr, G. 2001. High summits of the Alps in a changing climate. In: Walther, G.-R., Burga, C.A. and Edwards, P.J., Eds. Fingerprints of Climate Change. Kluwer, New York, New York, USA., p. 139-149.

Pauli, H., Gottfried, M., Reiter, K., Klettner, C. and Grabherr, G. 2007. Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: Observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria. Global Change Biology 13: 147-156.

Smith, H. 1920. Vegetationen och dess Utvecklingshistoria i det Centralsvenska Hogfjallsomradet. Almqvist och Wiksell, Uppsala, Sweden, 238 pp.

Theurillat, J.-P. and Guisan, A. 2001. Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: A review. Climatic Change 50: 77-109.

Westerstrom, G. 2008. Floran i tre socknar i nordvastra Angermanland. Svensk Botanisk Tidskrift 102: 225-261.