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U.S. Tropical Cyclone Landfalls: 1950-2002
Lyons, S.W.  2004.  U.S. tropical cyclone landfall variability: 1950-2002.  Weather and Forecasting 19: 473-480.

Climate alarmists often claim that rising temperatures lead to the creation of more numerous tropical cyclones.  One way of exploring this important question is within the context of the warming that occurs when going from La Niņa to El Niņo conditions.  New information related to this subject is presented in the study of Lyons.

What was done
The author conducted a number of analyses of U.S. landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes, dividing them into three different groupings: the 10 highest storm and hurricane landfall years, the 9 lowest such years, and all other years.

What was learned
Lyons reports that "La Niņa conditions occurred 19% more often during high U.S. landfall years than during remaining years," and that "El Niņo conditions occurred 10% more often during low U.S. landfall years than during remaining years."  In addition, he found that "La Niņa (El Niņo) conditions were 18% (25%) more frequent during high (low) U.S. landfall years than during low (high) U.S. landfall years."

What it means
Warming of the type produced during the El Niņo phase of ENSO activity typically results in less U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones; and, in the words of the author, "these results are consistent with previous research on ENSO effects on U.S. landfalling hurricanes," as may be verified by perusing the Journal Reviews we have posted under the heading Hurricanes (Atlantic Ocean - El Niņo Effect) in our Subject Index.

Reviewed 4 August 2004