Bielec (2001) analyzed thunderstorm data from Cracow, Poland for the period 1896-1995, finding an average of 25 days of such activity per year, with a non-significant linear-regression-derived increase of 1.6 storm days from the beginning to the end of the record. From 1930 onward, however, the trend was negative, revealing a similarly-derived decrease of 1.1 storm days. In addition, there was a decrease in the annual number of thunderstorms with hail over the entire period and a decrease in the frequency of storms producing precipitation in excess of 20 mm.

Similar findings were reported by the same author two years later (Bielec-Bakowska, 2003) for thunderstorm occurrences at seven Polish synoptic weather stations (Hel, Szczecin, Koszalin, Poznan, Wroclaw, Raciborz and Krakow) over the period 1885-2000. In this second study the University of Silesia scientist determined that "over an annual period of 116 years, no clear trends of changes in the number of days with thunderstorms in Poland were found," noting also that "interannual variability of days with thunderstorms in individual seasons did not show any specific trend," except in the winter season, but then only for Szczecin, Krakow and Koszalin, which led her to state that "the analysis did not unequivocally confirm the opinion that the number of thunderstorms in the cold part of the year increases," adding that "a similar phenomenon was observed in the whole of Europe."

Working in Sweden, Barring and von Storch (2004) introduce the rationale for their study by saying that with the perspective of anthropogenic climate change, the occurrence of extreme events such as windstorms may "create the perception that ... the storms lately have become more violent, a trend that may continue into the future." Therefore, with the intent to test this inference, and relying on data, rather than perception to address the topic, the two researchers analyzed long time series of pressure readings for Lund (since 1780) and Stockholm (since 1823), analyzing (1) the annual number of pressure observations below 980 hPa, (2) the annual number of absolute pressure tendencies exceeding 16 hPa/12h, and (3) intra-annual 95th and 99th percentiles of the absolute pressure differences between two consecutive observations. And by these means they determined that the storminess time series they developed "are remarkably stationary in their mean, with little variations on time scales of more than one or two decades." In this regard, for example, they note that "the 1860s-70s was a period when the storminess indices showed general higher values," as was the 1980s-90s, but that, subsequently, "the indices have returned to close to their long-term mean."

Barring and von Storch thus concluded their paper by stating that their storminess proxies "show no indication of a long-term robust change towards a more vigorous storm climate." In fact, during "the entire historical period," in their words, storminess was "remarkably stable, with no systematic change and little transient variability." Hence, it can be concluded that for much of Sweden, at least, there was no warming-induced increase in windstorms over the entire transitional period between the Little Ice Age and the Modern Warm Period, which suggests there is little reason to believe that this non-trend would change with any further warming of the globe, in stark contradiction of what most climate alarmists continually claim will occur.

Noting that "a great amount of evidence for changing storminess over northwestern Europe is based on indirect data and reanalysis data rather than on station wind data," Smits et al. (2005) investigated trends in storminess over the Netherlands based on hourly records of 10-m wind speed observations made at thirteen meteorological stations scattered across the country that have uninterrupted records for the time period 1962-2002. This effort led to their discovery that "results for moderate wind events (that occur on average 10 times per year) and strong wind events (that occur on average twice a year) indicate a decrease in storminess over the Netherlands [of] between 5 and 10% per decade."

Moving to the south and west of Europe, Raicich (2003) analyzed 62 years of sea-level data for the period 1 July 1939 to 30 June 2001 at Trieste, in the Northern Adriatic, to determine historical trends of surges and anomalies. This work revealed that weak and moderate positive surges did not exhibit any definite trends, while strong positive surges clearly became less frequent, even in the face of a gradually rising sea level, "presumably," in the words of Raicich, "as a consequence of a general weakening of the atmospheric activity," which was also found to have been the case for Brittany (France) by Pirazzoli (2000).

Taking a somewhat different approach, Barredo (2010) examined large historical windstorm event losses in Europe over the period 1970-2008 for 29 European countries. After adjusting the data for "changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level and for inter-country price differences using purchasing power parity," the researcher -- who is employed by the Institute for Environment and Sustainability, European Commission -- Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy - reported that "the analyses reveal no trend in the normalized windstorm losses and confirm increasing disaster losses are driven by society factors and increasing exposure," adding that "increasing disaster losses are overwhelmingly a consequence of changing societal factors."

Additional evidence for the recent century-long decrease in storminess in and around Europe comes from the study of Bijl et al. (1999), who analyzed long-term sea level records from several coastal stations in northwest Europe. According to these researchers, "although results show considerable natural variability on relatively short (decadal) time scales," there is "no sign of a significant increase in storminess ... over the complete time period of the data sets." In the southern portion of the North Sea, however, where natural variability was more moderate, they did find a trend, but it was "a tendency towards a weakening [italics added] of the storm activity over the past 100 years."

In introducing a study they conducted in Switzerland, Stoffel et al. (2005) noted that debris flows are a type of mass movement that frequently causes major destruction in alpine areas; and they reported that since 1987 there had been an apparent above-average occurrence of such events in the Valais region of the Swiss Alps, which had prompted some researchers to suggest that the increase was the result of global warming (Rebetez et al., 1997). Consequently, Stoffel et al. used dendrochronological methods to determine if the recent increase in debris-flow events was indeed unusual, and if it appeared that it was, to see if it made sense to attribute it to CO2-induced global warming.

In extending the history of debris-flow events (1922-2002) back to the year 1605, they found that "phases with accentuated activity and shorter recurrence intervals than today existed in the past, namely after 1827 and until the late nineteenth century." What is more, the nineteenth century period of high-frequency debris flow was shown to coincide with a period of higher flood activity in major Swiss rivers, while less frequent debris flow activity after 1922 corresponded with lower flooding frequencies. In addition, debris flows from extremely large mass movement events, similar to what occurred in 1993, were found to have "repeatedly occurred" in the historical past, and to have been of such substantial magnitude that, in the opinion of Stoffel et al., the "importance of the 1993 debris-flow surges has to be thoroughly revised."

The results of Stoffel et al.'s study demonstrate that the apparent above-average number of debris flow events since 1987 was just that - apparent. In fact, they report that debris flows occurred "ever more frequently in the nineteenth century than they do today." As a result, they concluded that "correlations between global warming and modifications in the number or the size of debris-flow events, as hypothesized by, e.g., Haeberli and Beniston (1998), cannot, so far, be confirmed in the study area."

These findings clearly demonstrate the importance of evaluating the uniqueness of Earth's contemporary climatic state -- or the uniqueness of recent trends in various climate-related phenomena -- over a much longer time span than just the past century or, even worse, merely a portion of it; for only when a multi-centennial or millennial view of the subject is available can one adequately evaluate the uniqueness of a climate-related phenomenon's recent behavior, let alone link that behavior to late 20th-century or early 21st-century global warming. So what do other studies reveal with respect to trends in storminess when examining a much longer timescale than 100 years?

One such analysis was conducted by Ogrin (2007), who presented "an overview of severe storms and a reconstruction of periods with their reiterative occurrence in sub-Mediterranean Slovenia in the warm half of the year during the so-called pre-instrumental period," based on "data gathered in secondary and tertiary historical sources." Speaking of "violent storms" and "the periods in which these phenomena were more frequent and reached, as to the costs of damage caused, the level of natural disasters or even catastrophes," Ogrin reports that "the 17th and 18th centuries were undoubtedly such periods, particularly their first halves, when besides storms also some other weather-caused natural disasters occurred quite often, so that the inhabitants, who mainly depended on the self-subsistent agriculture, could not recover for several years after some consecutive severe rigours of the weather." In addition, he reported that "the frequency of violent storms in that time was comparable to the incidence towards the end of the 20th century."

In light of such findings, Ogrin, who is in the Department of Geography of the University of Ljubljana, writes that the late 20th-century increase in violent storms "is supposed to be a human-generated consequence of emitting greenhouse gasses and of the resulting global warming of the atmosphere." However, he reports that "the damage done by severe storms in the past does not differ significantly from the damage in the present." And this fact suggests that the weather extremes of today, which he says are "supposed to be a human-generated consequence of emitting greenhouse gasses and of the resulting global warming of the atmosphere," may well be caused by something else; for if they have occurred in the past for a different reason (and they have), they can be occurring today for a different reason too.

Also recognizing that "an understanding of the patterns of past storminess is particularly important in the context of future anthropogenically driven climate change," especially in light of "predictions of increased storm frequency ... by the end of the current century," Clarke and Rendell (2009) reviewed evidence for storm activity across the North Atlantic region derived from instrumental records and archival evidence of storm impacts, which they then compared to sedimentological and chronological evidences of sand movement and dune building along western European coasts.

In so doing, the two UK researchers determined that "the most notable Aeolian sand drift activity was concentrated in the historic period 0.5-0.1 ka (AD 1500-1900) which spans the Little Ice Age." And they say that "within this period, low solar activity, during the Maunder (AD 1645-1715) and Dalton (AD 1790-1830) Minima, has been related to changes in Atlantic storm tracks (van der Schrier and Barkmeijer, 2005), anomalously cold winter and summer temperatures in Scandinavia (Bjerknes, 1965), and the repositioning of the polar front and changing sea ice cover (Ogilive and Jonsson, 2001)." In addition, they state that "the Holocene record of sand drift in western Europe includes episodes of movement corresponding to periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling (Bond et al., 1997) ... and provides the additional evidence that these periods, like the Little Ice Age, were also stormy," further suggesting that any future global warming would more likely result in less, rather than more, storminess in that part of the planet.

Working on the Swina barrier at the southern end of the Baltic Sea, which consists of two sandy spits or depositional landforms (Wolin and Uznam) that extend outward from the seacoast, Riemann et al. (2011) established what they describe as "a detailed and reliable chronology" of these landforms, based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of the coastal sediment succession. And this sediment history revealed much about the climate history of the region.

Specifically, the five researchers report that following the Roman Warm Period, which they say "is known for a moderate and mild climate in Europe" that produced brown foredunes, there was a hiatus between the brown and yellow dunes from 470 AD to 760 AD that "correlates with a cold and stormy period that is known as the Dark Ages Cold Period," which they say "is well known as a cooling event in the climatic records of the North Atlantic (Bond et al., 1997; McDermott et al., 2001) and in marine sediment cores from Skagerrak (Hass, 1996)," and which was also associated with a phase of increased aeolian activity in northeast England reported by Wilson et al. (2001).

Next, as expected, came the Medieval Warm Period. And last of all, Riemann et al. write that "the cold and stormy Little Ice Age (Hass, 1996) correlates to the formation of the transgressive white dune I in the sediment successions, which were dated to between 1540 and 1660 AD," adding that "the Little Ice Age is documented in North and West Europe in plenty of coastal dunefields, and resulted in sand mobilisation and development of transgressive dunes (e.g., Clemmensen et al., 2001a,b, 2009; Wilson et al., 2001, 2004; Clarke et al., 2002; Ballarini et al., 2003; Clemmensen and Murray, 2006; Aagaard et al., 2007; Sommerville et al., 2007; Clarke and Rendell, 2009)," due to a colder climate and increased storminess related to periodic shifts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (Dawson et al., 2002).

Noting that "the systematic accretion of foredunes is accompanied by a moderate climate and a progressive plant cover," the German and Polish scientists go on to say that foredune instability is "related to aeolian sand mobilisation within phases of a decreased plant cover caused by colder and stormier conditions." And these numerous sets of dune-derived data clearly demonstrate that in this particular part of the world warming brings less storminess.

Remarking that "the Mediterranean region is one of the world's most vulnerable areas with respect to global warming," citing Giorgi (2006), Sabatier et al. (2012) produced a high-resolution record of paleostorm events along the French Mediterranean coast over the past 7000 years. According to the nine French scientists, their work "recorded seven periods of increased storm activity at 6300-6100, 5650-5400, 4400-4050, 3650-3200, 2800-2600, 1950-1400, and 400-50 cal yr BP," the latter of which intervals they associate with the Little Ice Age. And they go on to state that "in contrast," their results show that "the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1150-650 cal yr BP) was characterized by low storm activity." In addition, they note that these changes in coastal hydrodynamics were in phase with those observed over the Eastern North Atlantic by Billeaud et al. (2009) and Sorrel et al. (2009), and that the periods of increased storminess they identified seem to correspond to periods of Holocene cooling detected in the North Atlantic by Bond et al. (1997, 2001), together with decreases in sea surface temperature reported by Berner et al. (2008), who they also say "associated this high frequency variation in sea surface temperature with ¹⁴C production rates, implying that solar-related changes are an important underlying mechanism for the observed ocean climate variability." Be that as it may (or may not), Sabatier et al. go on to state that "whatever the ultimate cause of these millennial-scale Holocene climate variations, the main decreases of sea surface temperature observed in the North Atlantic seem to be an important mechanism to explain high storm activity in the NW Mediterranean area." And, when considering Sabatier et al.'s findings, together with those of the others they cite, it would appear that if Earth's climate continues to warm, for whatever reason, storm activity in the Northwest Mediterranean area will likely significantly subside.

Moving toward Scandinavia, in introducing their study Barring and Fortuniak (2009) write that "extra-tropical cyclone frequency and intensity are currently under intense scrutiny because of the destruction recent windstorms have brought to Europe," adding that "several studies using reanalysis data covering the second half of the 20th century suggest increasing storm intensity in the northeastern Atlantic and European sector." Against this backdrop, Barring and Fortuniak analyzed the "inter-decadal variability in cyclone activity over northwestern Europe back to AD 1780 by combining information from eight storminess indices applied in a Eulerian framework," which indices "use the series of thrice-daily sea level pressure observations at Lund and Stockholm." So what did they find?

The two Swedish scientists say their results show that former reanalysis studies "cover a time period chiefly coinciding with a marked, but not exceptional in our 225-year perspective, positive variation in the regional cyclone activity that has more recently reversed [italics added]," noting that "because of the inter-decadal variations, a near-centennial time perspective is needed when analyzing variations in extra-tropical cyclone activity and the associated weather conditions over northwestern Europe." And by taking this more proper approach, the two researchers found that (1) "there is no significant overall long-term trend common to all indices in cyclone activity in the North Atlantic and European region since the Dalton minimum," that (2) "the marked positive trend beginning around 1960 ended in the mid-1990s and has since then reversed," and that (3) "this positive trend was more an effect of a 20th-century minimum in cyclone activity around 1960, rather than extraordinary high values in [the] 1990s."

Nearby, on the Danish island of Anholt, Clemmensen et al. (2007) examined sedimentological and geomorphological properties of the island's dune system, finding that "the last aeolian activity phase on Anholt (AD 1640-1900) is synchronous with the last part of the Little Ice Age." Furthermore, the team of researchers note that "dune stabilization on Anholt seems to a large degree to have been natural, and probably records a decrease in storminess at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century," which timing "is roughly simultaneous with dunefield stabilization on the west coast of Jutland and on Skagen Odde, citing the work of Clemmensen and Murray (2006).

Bjorck and Clemmensen (2004) extracted cores of peat from two raised bogs in the near-coastal part of southwest Sweden, from which they derived histories of wind-transported clastic material via systematic counts of quartz grains of various size classes that enabled them to calculate temporal variations in Aeolian Sand Influx (ASI), which has been shown to be correlated with winter wind climate in that part of the world. In doing so, they found that "the ASI records of the last 2500 years (both sites) indicate two timescales of winter storminess variation in southern Scandinavia." Specifically, they note that "decadal-scale variation (individual peaks) seems to coincide with short-term variation in sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic and is thus related to variations in the position of the North Atlantic winter season storm tracks," while "centennial-scale changes -- peak families, like high peaks 1, 2 and 3 during the Little Ice Age, and low peaks 4 and 5 during the Medieval Warm Period -- seem to record longer-scale climatic variation in the frequency and severity of cold and stormy winters."

The two researchers also found a striking association between the strongest of these winter storminess peaks and periods of reduced solar activity. They specifically note, for example, that the solar minimum between AD 1880 and 1900 "is almost exactly coeval with the period of increased storminess at the end of the nineteenth century, and the Dalton Minimum between AD 1800 and 1820 is almost coeval with the period of peak storminess reported here." In addition, they say that an event of increased storminess they dated to AD 1650 "falls at the beginning of the Maunder solar minimum (AD 1645-1715)," while further back in time they report high ASI values between AD 1450 and 1550 with "a very distinct peak at AD 1475," noting that this period coincides with the Sporer Minimum of AD 1420-1530. In addition, they call attention to the fact that the latter three peaks in winter storminess all occurred during the Little Ice Age and "are among the most prominent in the complete record."

Last of all, the two researchers report that degree of humification (DOH) intervals "correlate well with the classic late-Holocene climatic intervals," which they specifically state to include the Modern Climate Optimum (100-0 cal. yr BP), the Little Ice Age (600-100 cal. yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (1250-600 cal. yr BP), the Dark Ages Cold Period (1550-1250 cal. yr BP) and the Roman Climate Optimum (2250-1550 cal. yr BP). There would thus appear to be little doubt that winter storms throughout southern Scandinavia were more frequent and intense during the multi-century Dark Ages Cold Period and Little Ice Age than they were during the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Current Warm Period, providing strong evidence to refute the climate-alarmist contention that storminess tends to increase during periods of greater warmth. In the real world, just the opposite would appear to be the case.

In conclusion, as the Earth has recovered from the global chill of the Little Ice Age, there appears to have been no significant increase in either the frequency or intensity of stormy weather in Europe. In fact, most studies suggest just the opposite. These observations -- coupled with the fact that storminess in most other parts of the planet also decreased over this period (see the other regions of the earth treated under Storms in the CO2 Science Subject Index) - suggest that there is no real-world or data-driven reason to believe that storms would necessarily get any worse or become more frequent if the Earth were to warm somewhat more in the future.

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