Volume 11, Number 15: 9 April 2008
Lin (2007), who is with the NOAA/ESRL/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center located in Boulder, Colorado (USA), states that "a good simulation of tropical mean climate by the climate models is a prerequisite [our italics] for their good simulations/predictions of tropical variabilities and global teleconnections," but that "unfortunately, the tropical mean climate has not been well simulated by the coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) used for climate predictions and projections [our italics]," noting that "most of the CGCMs produce a double-intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) pattern," and acknowledging that "a synthetic view of the double-ITCZ problem is still elusive."
To explore the nature of this problem in greater depth, and to hopefully make some progress in resolving it, Lin analyzed tropical mean climate simulations of the 20-year period 1979-99 provided by 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) CGCMs, together with concurrent Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from 12 of them.
This work revealed, in Lin's words, that "most of the current state-of-the-art CGCMs have some degree of the double-ITCZ problem, which is characterized by excessive precipitation over much of the Tropics (e.g., Northern Hemisphere ITCZ, Southern Hemisphere SPCZ [South Pacific Convergence Zone], Maritime Continent, and equatorial Indian Ocean), and often associated with insufficient precipitation over the equatorial Pacific," as well as "overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF [latent heat flux], and insufficient SWF [shortwave flux], leading to significant cold SST (sea surface temperature) bias in much of the tropical oceans," while additionally noting that "most of the models also simulate insufficient latitudinal asymmetry in precipitation and SST over the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans," further stating that "the AMIP runs also produce excessive precipitation over much of the Tropics including the equatorial Pacific, which also leads to overly strong trade winds, excessive LHF, and insufficient SWF," which suggests that "the excessive tropical precipitation is an intrinsic error of the atmospheric models." And if that is not enough, Lin adds that "over the eastern Pacific stratus region, most of the models produce insufficient stratus-SST feedback associated with insufficient sensitivity of stratus cloud amount to SST."
With the solutions to all of these long-standing problems continuing to remain "elusive," and with Lin suggesting that the sought-for solutions are in fact prerequisites for "good simulations/predictions" of future climate, there is significant reason to conclude that current state-of-the-art CGCM predictions of CO2-induced global warming ought not be considered all that reliable. And to cite these predictions as the primary basis for totally revamping the way the world obtains the energy used to power modern societies, would seem to us to be the height of folly.
Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso
Reference
Lin, J.-L. 2007. The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis. Journal of Climate 20: 4497-4525.